prediction ma2026-07-22 23:50:14Study Reveals Only 3% of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy, Crowd LosesA joint study by London Business School and Yale analyzed 1.72 million Polymarket accounts and $13.76 billion in volume, finding that just 3% of informed traders move prices toward correct outcomes. The remaining 97% mostly lose money. Only 12% of top winners beat a 10,000-run coin-flip benchmark.490
Polymarket2026-07-08 16:28:14Polymarket Study Reveals Only 3.14% of Traders Drive Prediction Accuracy, Challenging 'Wisdom of Crowds' TheoryA new academic study challenges the 'wisdom of crowds' narrative for prediction markets, finding that just 3.14% of accounts on Polymarket drive most price discovery. The research also uncovers insider trading patterns, with CFTC filing charges.500
